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Even if Move Forward has support in the lower House to form a government, it can be blocked by the unelected Senate, which was appointed by a military government. But the party’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, is adamant that democratic oversight of the military and of conservative institutions like the judiciary and police are nonnegotiable.The military still holds some cards, though. It also proposes to raise taxes and spend more on welfare, though how much is likely to be subject to intraparty negotiations. One of the party’s campaign pledges was to reform the military and end conscription. On May 14, Move Forward Party, which is led by a young, U.S.-educated leader, won the biggest share of seats in parliament on a wave of support from younger voters, easily defeating parties backed by the military, which has governed Thailand since a 2014 coup. Move Forward has since begun talks with other parties to form a coalition government. Think of this as Thailand’s “deep state.”Now the military faces a dilemma after an election that could prove the most consequential in a generation. Any elected government that takes on the military, or is seen as a threat to its status, runs the risk of being deposed, if not by tanks in the streets then by a “judicial coup,” in the form of a court order that disbars politicians and dissolves their parties.

As a Monitor correspondent in Thailand, I covered elections and coups, in that order.

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